Mathematical model to fight new pandemics developed by UNN scientists

A mathematical model developed by scientists from the UNN Department of Neurotechnology will make it possible to determine a strategy for fighting new pandemics, taking into account the socio-cultural characteristics of the population in specific countries.

Lobachevsky University researchers studied the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence during the first 300 days of the pandemic worldwide and discovered mathematical regularities in the behaviour of people living in different territories: the dynamics of the epidemic changed depending on society's reaction to the risk of the disease and restrictive measures to combat the coronavirus.

"We have used the example of the COVID-19 pandemic to describe the response of people from 169 countries and showed its dependence on sociocultural traditions. Mobilisation and exhaustion rates were calculated for each country, reflecting the extent to which people adopt specific rules of behaviour and lose interest in these rules. In the future, this will make it possible to build national strategies to combat the pandemic," said Innokenty Kastalsky, the author of the study, Associate Professor of the Department of Neurotechnology at the UNN Institute of Biology and Biomedicine.

The study is based on the theory of general adaptation syndrome, according to which the reaction to a stress factor does not depend on its nature. In response to external information, an individual first "switches on" the anxiety mode, then mobilises, and then exhausts himself and gives up fighting the circumstances.

The UNN scientists' model provides a mathematical forecast of the speed of the epidemic's development, the duration of the plateau between the first and second waves, the number of people who will consult a doctor and agree to be hospitalised, the effectiveness of anti-covid measures, and more.

According to the researchers' data, Russians reacted weakly to new information and external influences, being slow in changing their behavioural model. At the same time, Russian residents maintained a special mode of life in a pandemic for a longer period of time.

"Our study shows that we can ignore danger messages for a long time, but then we stick to strict rules even longer than necessary. This is generally characteristic of countries with large territories," said Innokenty Kastalsky.

The USA, Colombia and Iran showed the highest attrition rates, so the first wave of the epidemic in these countries quickly grew into the second wave, aggravating the epidemiological situation. The Spanish and French were the most conscious in terms of social reactions: the population of these countries quickly mobilised and the incidence of the disease appeared to be on a long plateau.

In the future, scientists plan to design a system of mathematical models to develop effective strategies for combatting epidemics and to propose public behaviour modes in stressful situations for specific regions of the world or individual countries.

The research was carried out under the Priority 2030 federal programme of strategic academic leadership. The results were published in the international journal Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation.